Kudrna's Stock Market Talk » BreakoutTrader

BreakoutTrader: AAPL – Waiting And Be Patient

BreakoutTrader — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 04:05:48 +0000

In the StockTalk posted Monday 4/16 before market opened, I pointed out that AAPL stock price faced the first real serious challenge since the uptrend started on 12/5/2011.

I must admit that although I did expect AAPL to go down, but certainly did not expect its price to drop so quickly. As of 4/23 close, it is down 5.5% since close of 4/13 vs S&P 500 which is down 1.3%.

The following daily chart shows AAPL has a indecisive doji pattern on 4/23 and is also near support.

(click to enlarge)

AAPL will report earnings after market close today (4/24). So one of the most anticipated earnings announcement is less that 12 hours away, and the earnings results may determine the direction of AAPL’s next move. Good luck to every bulls and bears

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Additional disclosure: I may initiate a volatility based options position in the next 72 hours.

BreakoutTrader: Amazon – On The Move

BreakoutTrader — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 03:38:59 +0000

AMZN had been in a trading range between $175 and $195 area
since mid-January. It broke out of that trading range on 3/26 with
above average volume and continued to move up with increasing
volume until today (3/28). It pulled back with less volume today in
a down market day and closed at 201.16.

The following weekly chart shows, although the week is not over
yet, first sign of a possible uptrend as identified by the last green
bar in the middle pane. AMZN has also started outperforming
market index S&P 500 (green dots on the lower pane) in strength
since last week. This broke the underperforming relative strength
trend (red dots on lower pane) since the week of 10/24/2011.

The following daily chart shows a channel AMZN may follow to
move higher. It was near the upper channel line yesterday and closed today near the middle channel line. On a daily basis, it
appears that AMZN has broken out of a 3-month trading range
sinc January. Momentum and volatility are also on the rise.
Barring any negative news events and general market weakness,
AMZN could continue its move higher.

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Disclosure: I am long AMZN.

BreakoutTrader: Nike – Near Support

BreakoutTrader — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 03:52:06 +0000

NKE has been in an uptrend since it bounced off the $78 to
$79 area in August 2011. It closed at $107.88 on 3/27.

The following daily chart shows it is currently near the $107
support area which was the resistance area in February. It
is also at the bottom of an uptrend channel started on 8/9/11.

Watch NKE to see if it can break above recent $109 resistance
area.

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in NKE over the next 72 hours.

BreakoutTrader: Apple – Near Upper Channel Resistance

BreakoutTrader — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 00:13:02 +0000

Apple’s (AAPL) stock price went above $600 land mark twice (3/15 and today 3/19) in recent days and closed at $601.1 today. What a historical day for AAPL!

The following daily chart shows AAPL finally made its way to
reach the upper channle line of the yellow channel I first discussed
here on 2/9. Now there are two possible paths for AAPL to
continue to move up: first, fall back toward the middle yellow
channel line and start another move up from there, or follow the new smaller pink uptrending channel. However, I must point out I am less confident for APPL to follow the pink channel, mainly due to its small base.

And of course one should keep an eye on the exit and watch
for signs of bears pulling the “Apple” down from the sky high
“tree”. Never assume AAPL can not fall …

Be nimble, objective, quantify your views/arguments, let the
emotionless charts tell you what to do, and manage your
risks …

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Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

BreakoutTrader: Apple – Bull Run Continues

BreakoutTrader — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 03:13:50 +0000

Apple had a good day today (3/13). The stock gapped up
and closed up 2.9%, leaving an unfilled gap from yesterday.
The volume was heavier than the last three days. It also
outperformed major indexes: S&P 500 was up 1.8%, QQQ
was up 1.9% and technology ETF XLK was up 2.0%.

The following daily chart shows AAPL broke above a small
resistence area around $545 yesterday and continued to
move higher today. It also appears to be pulling away
from the uptrending middle yellow channel line. The yellow
channel line was first drawn on 2/9 article.

Based on our indicator in the middle pane, AAPL’s up trend
started on 12/5/2011 (green bar). Since then, there have
been several pull backs (yellow bar areas), and yet those
turned out to be good buying opportunities.

Technically speaking, in our view, AAPL can continue to
go higher if the broader market cooperates. From the
chart, a $600 price target, which is actually only 5%
from today’s closing price of $568.10, is quite possible.

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Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

BreakoutTrader: S&P 500 – Possible Turning Point?

BreakoutTrader — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 02:31:14 +0000

The S&P 500 index’s price action on Friday (3/9) was
not too encourging. It closed at 1370.87 and has been
in cosolidation for about a week now.

The following hourly chart shows other than the first two
hours, it was sideways-to-down toward the end of the day.

On the daily chart, the trend is still up, but looking tired,
and the index has not been able to pull away from the middle channel line for some time. It dropped below the middle line on
3/6 and managed to get above the line on Friday.

On the daily basis, there is a possibe important turning point at
1376.91, 6.04 points away from Friday’s close.

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BreakoutTrader: Alpha Natural Resources – At Six-Month Support Levels

BreakoutTrader — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 04:08:18 +0000

ANR had an intraday low of $15.52 yesterday. The following
chart shows that was near/at six-month low since
10/4.

The hourly chart’s price/volume indicator generated
a possible turning point signal on yesterday’s first
hour. ANR needs to hold the $15.52 low, otherwise,
it may resume the downtrend.

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in ANR over the next 72 hours.

BreakoutTrader: Nokia – Turning Around?

BreakoutTrader — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 05:23:22 +0000

NOK had a good day Friday (2/24), up 4.7% with huge
volume on news to be announced next Monday. S&P 500
index was up 0.2% today. QQQ was up 0.3%.

Since I last wrote about NOK on 12/26/2011, NOK has traded
in a range between $4.90 and $5.80 area most of the
time. One encourging sign during this period is there were
many gaps, but NOK was able to fill those gaps and
broke above the range with today’s high of $5.87, above
the previous high of $5.78 on 1/19.

The following daily chart shows NOK has been stronger than
the broader market SPX since 2/14 (green dots on the second
pane) and started an uptrend on 2/17 (green up bar on first
pane). It also shows NOK finally came up and touched the
downtrend channel on 2/21 and broke above the channel
today.

A small uptrend channel was drawn today, based on 12/19/2011
low. This is the uptrend NOK may follow and is worth while
to pay attention to.

Momentum, volatility, and volume on the daily chart have also
gone up recently.

The following weekly chart shows NOK outperformed market
S&P 500 index this week for the first time since the week of 11/21/2011. Momentum and volatily on the weekly chart are also turning up, but volume is about the same as last week.However,
the weekly trend has not turned up yet. It is in a neutral with
down bias state (yellow down bars), signaling NOK is still in a
down/trading range for intermediate terms.

It appears NOK is trying to turn around and the low of
$4.46 made on 12/19/2011 may even be the low for several
months to come.

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in NOK over the next 72 hours.

BreakoutTrader: FXE Euro – Uptrend Resumed

BreakoutTrader — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 05:20:42 +0000

FXE, the Euro ETF, broke above 2/9 high of 132.64
today (2/23) with good volume. The uptrend appears
to have resumed and it should continue to go up if it
can stay above 10/4/2011 high of 131.19.

The trend for UUP, the dollar ETF, should be down.

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in FXE over the next 72 hours.

BreakoutTrader: Intuitive Surgical – Second Move

BreakoutTrader — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 02:49:58 +0000

ISRG gapped down on earnings release date 1/20,
but was able to recover, closed the gap, and even
broke above the $475 resistance area. What a very
“resilient” stock !

The following daily chart shows a new uptrend in
yellow channel. Based on the new channel, if the
market cooperates, ISRG has the chance to reach
$525 area by the end of this week.

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in ISRG over the next 72 hours.