Kudrna's Stock Market Talk

Good evening and Happy Fathers Day.  Below, are some of the most requested charts over the past week with some general market analysis to digest.  Despite the alarmingly low volume in the markets, which is not giving confidence to many, the market has created some very nice chart setups and has a slightly bullish sentiment.  After we moved above 1108 in the S&P 500, we have seen consolidation, which has been the reason for such attractive chart setups.  My favorite stocks to watch this week are the ones with bullish Russell rebalancing news coming out.  Due to the very low volume in the market, the best breakouts are happening in the sectors that find themselves in the headlines often.  This includes Energy and Gold/Silver.  This has made the combination of strong chart setups and anticipated bullish news to be much more pertinent to finding high volume breakouts.  The Russell rebalancing news should be very helpful in finding the short-term volume strength that we need to profit from.  Keep your eyes on the S&P 500, 1108 level.  If we break support there, we could see weakness develop in the charts.  (more…)

Assuming the trend continues, now is the time to get into Verizon (VZ) for its run-up to the dividend next month.   VZ tends to be one of my favorite dividend plays for its strong yield, 6.7%.  Recently, I swapped out of Altria (MO), after ensuring I was on the books for the dividend, and increased my position in VZ with the proceeds.  The chart will explain why. (more…)

10:40am

I was starting to get worried at the lack of action today but the bulls finally came to life late this morning.  Greece seems to be receiving their Band-aid (Bailout) soon, the Dow is up, but nobody seems truly excited.  Maybe everyone is tired after having to shovel a lot of snow lately.  I’m watching the charts of the S&P 500 and Dow to see where our short term support exists.  The Dow has support around 9970 and the S&P 500 has support around 1060.  If either breaks, we could see a free fall follow but with the recent move up (just a few minutes ago), we might not even test those support levels today though I was worried for most of the morning about that. (more…)

1:30pm

The bulls still can’t mount any offense so far today but the action isn’t as negative as it could be.  I see some more individuals starting to feel more comfortable picking away at these lower prices now which is a good sign if we are going to mount any offense in the near future.  I haven’t done a whole lot myself.  Sold some gains in Altria (MO) and sold my gains from this morning in Cell Therapeutics (CTIC) before it fell too low that I lost those gains.  I’m down small on the entire trade itself now and may look to get back in pending a response from CTIC to the FDA questions prior to Wednesday’s review. However, the price would have to be very favorable as the shorts have taken full control of this stock and are punishing anyone in it right now.   Any good news could send the shorts covering and this stock going up huge…but the momentum is to the downside and it’s too risky to try and catch a falling knife. (more…)

1pm

We had another wild ride of a week with the bulls starting strong only to lose the control to the bears later in the week. Emotions were optimistic by Tuesday only to be met with all-out fear by Thursday and Friday. The shorts covered by the end of Friday which provided some relief but don’t let it fool you into thinking this bear market is over…I don’t buy that for one second. I expect next week to be all around negative as well but a better indicator of where our bottom is so that we can start to feel comfortable adding to our long term positions while also running some trading longs in the volatility. I prefer to see the momentum moving up before I start committing more of my capital rather than trying to call a bottom/reversal. Making those types of predictions are fun and exciting but often dangerous and overly risky. The emotions in the market are still filled with fear and as I write often, markets tend to be overbought for longer than anticipated and oversold for longer than anticipated. I believe this will last longer than we all hope unless you are short the market or running only trades throughout the day’s volatility. (more…)

11:00am

More of the same from last week continued over to this week as the overall market sentiment was negative.  We had a sell the news reaction in most stocks regardless of what good news they posted.   Fear and uncertainty were the main drives forces.  Any bounces we had were weak and the bears soon regained control while the dip buyers stayed on the sidelines. (more…)

7:40pm

Bernanke stays in, Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) both posted good quarters however only the negative seems to be looked at and focused on these days.  While AMZN is up in afterhours, I believe it should be up more and MSFT is about even afterhours. Lately, Tech as a group has been hated and I dont think that is going away anytime soon outside of some expected bounces that I feel will be weak and won’t last long so stick with the trend of being prepared to sell profits into strength and protect your capital.  Typically, now is the time people transition out of Tech and start buying it back in July/August.  Bernanke won’t help us even though he got his votes today but if he was out, the markets would surely be down big tomorrow.  Nobody wants to buy right now…we are all waiting for someone to lead the way but nobody is stepping up to the plate.  I’m finding the best action in my micro, small, and mid cap stocks like Sirius Satellite (SIRI) which was up 10% today and small trades that last only an hour or so in some of my stem cell stocks like Cord Blood America, Inc (CBAI).  These stocks are being less affected by the overall market and somewhat flying under the radar…so I might start to focus my portfolio action around some trades in these types of stocks for the near future.

I’m watching the Shanghai Exchange to try and help determine when we might see some relief but all I see is declines in it as well.  I’ll keep my eyes on it tonight and tomorrow morning before our open to get a possible sense of what’s to come.  China won’t be helping us out anytime soon it seems.  Banks started to come to life today in an otherwise terrible market.  I’m still long JP Morgan (JPM) but have been hesitant to add more until I see some clarity. (more…)

1:50pm

Apple (AAPL)  finally released the Ipad and pricing associated with it.  Apparently it was great news as AAPL jumped on the news after an initial sell the news reaction happened leading into the event.  I’ve sold some more shares on the excitement but will hold a core position and buy back if the price dips under $200 for long-term.  Steve Jobs is truly a unique and amazing businessman with well-rounded skills.  He is not only amazing with technology but he is an amazing businessman and salesman as well.   He truly shows how powerful well-rounded skills can be if you strive for it.  In an uncertain market, AAPL makes me feel safe when my money is invested in them.  Altria (MO) also makes me feel safe but doesn’t have the upside potential that AAPL possesses.   It’s nearly impossible to find a stock with low risk and huge upside…AAPL may just be one of them.  I hope to have the opportunity to buy back under $200 when the excitement dies down but I might have to settle for low $200′s and I plan to hold for the long-term. (more…)

11:52am

Apple (AAPL) is up around 213.50 while I’m writing this and I made a responsible move by recently taking some shares off the table for a nice little gain.  I have a smaller position now that I will let ride and see what happens later today and tomorrow.

I’ve been receiving a lot of emails lately on what to do with Cord Blood America, Inc (CBAI).  CBAI is up nicely today but I don’t trust the staying power right now so I don’t feel compelled to buy as if I’m going to miss the train.  I think we have plenty of time over the next few weeks to add more at a better price.  If you do buy, just make sure you don’t buy all at once and make sure you have the funds to average down and buy more. (more…)