Shouts in Kudrna's Stock Market Talk

Comment by CMHTraders

Thu, 10 May 2012 11:16:48 -0500

No one jumping the bids today… so no sense of excitement. From the sell side you see large block orders come in on the limit and sellers can’t front run them fast enough. A lot of it might have to do with the punishment that has been doled out to any stock who even thought about posting a weak guidance. Seeing high PE stocks that were the next “it” taken to the wood shed to be slaughter for 50% in a day shows how bloated we were at the top. This is not remotely the market I pictured today. After such a sound beating one would think bulls would be value hunting. The only stocks show relative strength are the market leaders with low PE’s… and even they aren’t up big. This price action makes me think that 1343 was just a support breach, not a firm bottom that one could trade against.
[reply]

Comment by Michael Kudrna

Wed, 09 May 2012 12:35:38 -0500

For CMHTraders – I’m prepared this summer for bad trading and keeping higher levels of cash than usual. Europe situation as you noted and the fear of another US Debt Downgrade/Debt struggles, among others.
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Wed, 09 May 2012 08:29:36 -0500

Remember a few years ago? The Euro currency gets pounded and our markets nosedive? The Euro rallies and we shoot up? Looks like that trade is reemerging with vengeance. The Euro is FIRMLY weaker here….
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Wed, 09 May 2012 08:18:23 -0500

AAPL/AMZN: I was able to cover my AMZN short near the lows yesterday and enjoy a rebound towards the close into which I re-initiated the short. This trade is acting more as a hedge against AAPL than a true pairs trade but I still stand by the thesis. These are the only two positions that I have on pre market.
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Wed, 09 May 2012 08:11:30 -0500

Euro back in the headlines. We really don’t have any of our own macro data to dig us out of the whole so buyers will have to step up to reverse the loss. Yesterday we got a turn after lunch. I wouldn’t look for that turn today if the markets violate yesterday’s lows. Bonds are approaching record highs… The problem is that indicator has diverged so much it’s tough to call a top. We were trading at these levels back in September but the market and volatility was infinitely higher. Should the market return to those levels both on a volatility level and absolute value level where are bonds supposed to go? Zero? The 10 year is already trading below inflation rate…. I wouldn’t listen too much to the chatter about bonds MUST come down. Some of the twits saying that are the same ones saying that there must be more QE. Which is akin to having your cake and eating it too.
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Fri, 04 May 2012 13:36:51 -0500

Next week…..

Elections in France, Germany, Italy, Greece…

This could shake Euro agreements if progressive/populist’s sweep control of the region. A lot of the greek pinheads have already said they plan to “restructure” the punitive debt deal….
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Thu, 03 May 2012 08:36:59 -0500

My redo was a calendar call spread with a short put kicker 20% out of the money. and on a support line. I didn’t put on the trade because I couldn’t short the stock and adjust delta after the report. That saved me….. If all legs of a trade strategy aren’t there don’t do it. Now the stock is at a multi year low. I would look for a long side play in a few days when the value investors are out and talking about it. I would also look at is a takeover target if it goes down to the mid to low 20′s
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Thu, 03 May 2012 08:34:46 -0500

GMCR: Yesterday I was talking about this stock. I have regularly shorted it as I believe that the company was poorly managed. (It’s missed it’s growth goals 3 qtrs running) My last short position was closed out and the stock moved onto the locate list… then the threshold list. I was thinking that the time for the big short wasn’t on the table because so many people were short the stock and it was setting up for a short squeeze if the just met top line EPS. Well they did that but then took down yearly guidance…. and the stock is being pommelled
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Thu, 03 May 2012 07:59:59 -0500

Holding for the open:

AAPL long 100
GOOG long 100
AMZN short 300

Reasoning is simple… AMZN will be due at some time for a fade and AAPL defended it’s moving average well yesterday closing near the high. The past few days AMZN has been pushing the QQQ while AAPL underperformed. I am looking for a reversal of this role. GOOG was added for a little bit more leverage to the upside. GOOG defended the 603 and change support level well yesterday and closed near the high on heavy volume.
[reply]

Comment by Michael Kudrna

Wed, 02 May 2012 10:37:36 -0500

Now that activity is once again picking up in DEJ, I’ll be placing a lowball bid to try and catch a low volume move down. Lots of upside resistance to get past. Needs a good PR from management.
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Wed, 02 May 2012 07:34:58 -0500

Short AMZN before the open and long VXX…

[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Wed, 02 May 2012 07:08:00 -0500

Watch the IOC’s… they are getting hammered pre market. However, inventories are going to be posted during the trade day… this could set up a nice reversal
[reply]

Comment by Michael Kudrna

Wed, 02 May 2012 06:48:01 -0500

For CMHTraders – Thanks for the great updates
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Wed, 02 May 2012 06:33:31 -0500

Mixed bag on the global macro…. By far and large the Eurozone news was universally bad. Their markets seem to be taking it in stride though. The data from Asia was a little better inasmuch as it “beat” expectations. Chinese PMI was above expectations but still showed a contraction. Market sentiment is likely to be that the trend shows a bottoming. I find it a little premature as the Eurozone is just now entering a recession whose depth and length is yet to be determined. China is still all about the exports… endemic demand has been relatively weak. So a deepening recession would certainly put more pressure on China.
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Tue, 01 May 2012 08:09:00 -0500

Notable global macro events:

China PMI came in a smudge better than expected. RBA (Australia) made a 50 BP cut to rates
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Tue, 01 May 2012 08:03:02 -0500

Should be interesting to watch….

COP and PSX

The spinoff is complete… I do hold and love the fact that COP will not be drug down by downstream performance anymore. One of the first actions I will take is to sell my PSX shares as soon as they show up in my account
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Mon, 30 Apr 2012 09:42:24 -0500

Tomorrows AM earnings…
ADM, BIIB, BP, CMI, FE, FWLT, LM, ODP, PFE, VLO
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 08:16:48 -0500

I may add QQQ to short…. However AMZN is high on it’s list of holdings. I want to see if AMZN gets a heavy bid at the open before I add short… The QQQ has AAPL as it’s top holding as well. It would be a purer hedge, but if I am expecting AAPL to come off the lows I don’t want to eat into my gains too fast
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 07:58:54 -0500

Opening the session with a long AAPL pos and 300 share short of the Spy and 100 shares short of the DIA… If the dow recovers off the data pre open I will get short more
[reply]

Comment by CMHTraders

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 08:22:45 -0500

Mainly short radar on today with names like AET, TOT, AKAM, UPS, JOY, LVS

Some momentum plays with EQIX, EBAY, SBUX, STX

Bullish plays in CMG and GLW as well depending on support and resistance
[reply]